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NAAIM buy signal update
I had highlighted an unusual contrarian buy signal in my last post (see Round number-itis at 2500). NAAIM sentiment, which is reported weekly, turned anomalously bearish last week and fell below its...
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The Fed has spoken (and what that means)
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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Equity lessons from the bond market
Political operative and former Clinton advisor James Carville once quipped that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market so that he could intimidate everybody. Equity investors and traders are...
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Things you don't see at market bottoms, CFD leverage edition
It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form...
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Buy the breakout?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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How American policy could tank China
As China approaches its 19th Party Congress, there has been no shortage of analysis about what to watch for. Here are a couple of examples worth reading:The meeting that could seal Xi's grip on China...
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Nearing upside target, what now?
Mid-week market update: Back on July 19, 2017, I wrote about using point and figure charting as a way of projecting an upside SPX target when the index stood at 2473 (see What's the upside target in...
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Be careful what you wish for: Catalonia independence edition
The situation in Catalonia is a mess. Catalan frustrations are understandable. The region is the most prosperous of all in Spain, and shares similar characteristics as norther Italy to the rest of...
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Is 3% for 6 months enough to take equity risk?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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The VIX also rises
Deep in the recesses of my memory from my youth, I recall reading an Ernest Hemingway quote that went something like this:How did you go bankrupt?Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.From The VIX Also...
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Peak small cap tax cut euphoria?
Mid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market...
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Market melt-up and crash?
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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What would a Taylor Fed look like?
Bloomberg reported that Donald Trump interviewed John Taylor for the position of Fed chair and "Trump gushed about Taylor after his interview", as "Kevin Warsh has...seen his star fade within the White...
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A continued grind upwards
Mid-week market update: I wrote last weekend that there was a possibility that the stock market may undergo a melt-up, followed by a crash (see Market melt-up and crash?). That scenario may well be...
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Beware the expiry of the 19th Party Congress Put option
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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Peak FANG?
I had been meaning to write about this topic, but Barron's beat me to it with a terrific article called "Breaking up Tech" which detailed the anti-trust vulnerability of Big Tech companies. The...
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Minor turbulence ahead
Mid-week market update: The SPX has been on an upper Bollinger Band (BB) ride on the weekly chart, and I have been waiting for a downside break on the weekly RSI-14 indicator as the signal that a...
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Good news, bad news from Earnings Season
Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on...
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Things you don't see at market bottoms: Halloween edition
It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form...
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A market volatility update
Mid-week market update: In my weekend post (see Good news, bad news from Earnings Season), I had identified several sources of potential market volatility this week:Mueller indictmentsGOP tax planFOMC...
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